Of Oil… and War… and Politics:
Convergence – the coming together of events unrelated, and the synthesis of darkness- storm clouds gathering on a nearing horizon.
There are several unrelated a “tipping Point” events now unfolding across the globe.
– The Deep Water Horizon oil spill
– Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons
– North Korean aggression and posturing
– Turkey’s hostility toward Israel
– The deep divide in United States domestic politics
Any one event constitutes a simmering crisis, together they present the risk for potential global instability on a scale not seen since the second war lot war. They are converging at a time of significant and global, financial instability. They are present at a time of deep division within America. The rise of China and Russia and the decline of Pax Americana against this backdrop portend even greater danger. While we are over extended in Iraq and Afghanistan, Potential enemies plot against us.
The catastrophic oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has been underestimated in scope from the onset in April. Seventy five days into this crisis and it has now become the worst oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. From the first days after the explosion, countries from around the world have offered material support, and yet have been blocked by the Obama administration and his Federal agencies. State and local officials pleading for a more robust response, leadership and assistance to do even more on their own. Again blocked or delayed by Obama and the Federal Government and following the Script of Rahm Emanuel, he took advantage of this crisis and in his only National Oval Office address, politicized the crisis as an opportunity to push his radical cap and trade energy bill. This, as death and devastation pour into the Gulf waters, and lives and a way of life, and jobs that provide for Gulf Coast families die. The political fallout is only just beginning.
Iran continues its defiance of international pressure in the form of the factual sanctions. Best intelligence estimates now put Iran within reach of perhaps two nuclear weapons in as short as eight months time. Ahmadinejad continues to voice existential threats directed at Israel. All eyes are on a massive, yet quiet military buildup in the region. The United States has the largest naval armada since the Gulf war in theatre, and there are reports Israel is staging material at Saudi Bases. All shaping up to what appears to be a fall “surprise” – just in time for U.S. mid-term elections.
North Korea, meanwhile, has gotten away with a blatant act of war, sinking a South Korean military ship. Emboldened by their Nuclear deterrent and they are a foreshadow of a world awash in Nuclear Weapons, where a dangerous cat and mouse game, and tit for tad strikes and counter strikes, pick away at the fabric of world stability. They continue to threaten all out war if the U.S. or the U.N. takes any action, or impose new Sanctions.
And Turkey – a NATO ally and partner with Israel has become increasingly hostile toward Israel under the influence of Islamic trends in the top political leadership. A raid by Israel on a so-called humanitarian aid ship that left nine dead is the catalyst being used by Turkish PM Erdogan to attempt to threaten and intimidate Israel into lifting the block aid of Gaza. Tensions are also rising on the border with Lebanon, as a full scale regional conflict looms.
Much closer to home, deep divisions in American Politics continue to see the erosion of the hold on power by the two major political parties. The Progressive left is making every attempt to use the levers of political power while they hold office and have both Houses of Congress and the White House. Republicans continue to dissemble, and the top leadership is as inept as it is ignorant. Republican chair Michael Steel so completely lost he does not even know how or why or when we went to war in Afghanistan. As the Tea Party movement makes marginal gains, what is most clear is that the stakes in the upcoming mid-term elections have never been higher. Unless the Progressive juggernaut of this President is stopped in its tracks, issues from Immigration to taxes threaten to plunge this once strong union, once more to the brink. Arizona, Texas and other states are growing increasingly wary of the Power and scope of a runaway Federal Government, endless spending and the lack of support for border security, or cleaning up the worst environmental disaster in our history. Tacit calls for succession and clear lines in the sand have been drawn. November 2010 is the neat battleground, the best hope to stop the Progressive madness.
We will be keeping a close eye on these events and continue with news analysis and commentary in the days and months ahead. For Perspective outside the mainstream and clarity of thoughts – we hope you return often and participate in a conversation on the events shaping our world and our future.